If I flip a coin and get “tails” 4 times in a row, surely the next one will be “heads” – right? Isn’t that what we expect? But guess what – the coin has no memory. The chances of getting “heads” or “tails” is exactly the same as it was on the first flip. Expecting “heads” because we had a run of “tails” is called the Gambler’s Fallacy.
Here are some ways this can play out in our real lives. An interviewer can think, wow, I’ve seen 4 really poor candidates today – surely the next one will be a winner. And she can artificially elevate a person’s fit for the job.
A reviewer can see 10 great movies – and they really were great. He will begin to think there’s got to be some bad ones in here – and artificially criticize the next movie they see.
Your favorite football team has lost six games in a row. You decide to bet $200 on them winning the next game because you just believe they’re due for a win. No, if they stink, they’re going to lose again.
Kathy just found out she was turned down for government housing, someone apparently stole her $5000 tax refund check, she’s being hounded by collectors and her car broke down. Surely her luck has got to change soon. Really??
This isn’t a string of bad luck – it’s just the natural consequences of bad decisions. Kathy was turned down for government housing because she lied on her application. No one stole her refund check. It turns out she lost a job a couple years back, found a new one two months later but continued to receive and cash unemployment checks for another year. She’s being hounded by collectors because she has 12-yr-old student loans where she’s never started repayment. Surely the car is just bad luck – ah, when’s the last time you checked the radiator and topped off the oil level? Her “luck” is not going to change until her actions change.
How does this work for us? Don’t think that things just even out over time. We create our “luck” by the decisions we make daily.
Hey, this phenomenon shows up at the other end of the spectrum as well. Sometimes I find people apologizing for how well things are going. They start to fear – when is something bad going to happen? Don’t do that. If you’re making good decisions – you will continue to experience an ongoing string of good results.
